The rental markets in Texas and Florida are experiencing significant shifts in 2025, with rising vacancy rates and declining rents affecting landlords across both states. If you own rental property in the major Texas and Florida metros, understanding these market dynamics is critical to maximizing your investment returns.

Understanding the Current Rental Market Downturn

Why Are Rental Vacancy Rates Rising?

The pandemic created a gold rush for Texas and Florida, as newly remote workers flocked to cheaper rental markets. Between 2020-2022, rents grew 10-20% annually across most major metros, as demand far outpaced supply. New home construction surged in response. However, while supply has continued to grow since the end of the pandemic, demand has not kept pace. This has created substantial rental property oversupply across Texas and Florida markets, as new supply struggles to be absorbed by the market. This oversupply has triggered:

• Longer days on market for rental properties
• Year-over-year rent decreases in most metros
• Increased competition among landlords for qualified tenants
• Tenant demand remains present but highly selective
• Widespread concession offerings, particularly in the multifamily sector

These factors all represent a market correct to the unsustainable growth of COVID-era  rental demand.

The Construction Pipeline Problem: Why New Supply Isn't Being Absorbed

The rental market oversupply isn't resolving quickly due to several compounding factors:

Delayed Construction Completions: Projects approved and financed during 2021-2022's low-interest environment are only now reaching completion. This means new inventory continues flooding markets even as demand has moderated.

The Build-to-Rent Boom: Institutional investors and homebuilders launched massive build-to-rent communities (single-family homes designed as rentals) during the pandemic. These large-scale developments—often 100-300+ homes in single communities—are now competing directly with individual landlord properties.

Multifamily Development Surge: These cities approved record multifamily construction during the pandemic housing boom. Markets like Austin, Miami, and Tampa each have 15,000-25,000+ apartment units under construction or recently delivered, creating unprecedented competition for renters.

Absorption Timeline Challenges: Historically, rental markets absorb new supply within 6-12 months. Current conditions suggest 18-24 month absorption timelines in the hardest-hit markets, meaning oversupply pressures will persist through 2025 and potentially into early 2026.

‍

2025 Rental Market Data: Texas Metro Analysis

Austin Rental Market Trends

Austin is experiencing the most severe rental market correction among major U.S. metros:

• Rent decrease: 6-7% year-over-year
• Average days on market: 45-55 days

For landlords in Austin, aggressive pricing strategies are essential to minimize vacancy losses in this highly competitive market. The city's explosive pandemic growth has reversed, with tech sector layoffs and remote work reducing in-migration.

Dallas-Fort Worth Rental Market Conditions

The DFW rental market shows moderate decline, with a diverse economy and corporate relocation providing some relief:

• Rent decrease: 1-2% year-over-year
• Average days on market: 45-55 days

San Antonio Rental Property Outlook

San Antonio landlords are facing:

• Rent decrease: Approximately 4% year-over-year
• Average days on market: 50-60 days

Houston Rental Market Performance

Houston is performing slightly better than other Texas metros, due to the oil and gas energy supporting employment and rental demand:

• Rent change: Flat to down 0.5-1.0% year-over-year
• Average days on market: 40-55 days

2025 Rental Market Data: Florida Metro Analysis

Miami Rental Market Trends

Miami's rental market remains relatively stable:

• Rent change: Roughly flat year-over-year
• Average days on market: 50-60 days

Tampa Rental Property Market

Tampa is experiencing competitive conditions:

• Rent decrease: Approximately 1% year-over-year
• Average days on market: 45-55 days

Orlando Rental Market Update

Orlando landlords face moderate challenges:

• Rent decrease: Approximately 2% year-over-year (July 2025)
• Average days on market: 45-60 days

Jacksonville Rental Property Performance

Jacksonville offers more favorable conditions:

• Rent change: Flat to down 0.5-1.0% year-over-year
• Average days on market: 35-45 days

Fort Myers and Cape Coral Rental Market

Southwest Florida is experiencing significant corrections:

• Rent decrease: 5-10% year-over-year

Rental Market Forecast: What to Expect Through 2026

• Austin: Most challenging market; potential for additional 2-3% rent declines before stabilization
• San Antonio & Orlando: Moderate additional softness expected (1-2% further declines)
• Dallas, Tampa, Houston: Likely to stabilize in late 2025/early 2026 as supply absorption catches up
• Jacksonville & Miami: Best positioned for stability; may see slight improvement by Q2 2026
• Fort Myers/Cape Coral: Dependent on continued population growth; high volatility risk

‍

Rental Property Pricing Strategies for 2026

How to Reduce Vacancy Rates in Competitive Markets

Traditional rental pricing strategies may not work in oversupplied markets. Based on market data analysis, landlords who minimize vacancy losses are:

1. Pricing competitively from day one: Consider listing 5-10% below comparable rental properties
2. Calculating true vacancy costs: A property vacant for 30+ days often loses more income than pricing $100 below market
3. Monitoring days on market closely: Properties showing limited interest within the first week typically require price adjustments

Consider a pricing review to improve competitiveness and reduce total vacancy loss.

How Property Management Can Help Navigate Market Challenges

Professional Property Management in Down Markets

Working with experienced property management companies provides advantages in challenging markets:

• Market expertise: Real-time data on competitive rental rates and demand
• Proactive strategy: Regular property performance reviews and pricing adjustments
• Marketing optimization: Professional listing presentation to maximize showing rates
• Tenant screening: Access to qualified tenant pools even in slow markets

FAQ: Texas and Florida Rental Market 2025

Q: When will rental markets in Texas and Florida recover? 

A: Rental markets are cyclical. Recovery timing depends on construction pipeline absorption, which typically takes 12-24 months. Markets with slowing new construction (like Houston) may stabilize faster than those with ongoing supply increases.

Q: Should I hold my rental property vacant for higher rent? 

A: In most cases, no. The cost of extended vacancy typically exceeds the potential gain from holding out for higher rent in declining markets.

Q: Which Florida market has the best rental property performance in 2025? 

A: Jacksonville shows the most favorable conditions with shortest days on market (35-45 days) and minimal rent declines.

Q: How can I make my rental property stand out in competitive markets? 

A: Beyond competitive pricing, focus on professional photography, detailed property descriptions, flexible showing schedules, and quick response times to inquiries.

Q: Are rental property investments still worthwhile in Texas and Florida? 

A: Long-term rental property investment fundamentals remain strong in both states due to population growth and favorable business climates. Current conditions create opportunities for buyers while challenging existing landlords.

Take Action: Optimize Your Rental Property Strategy

Understanding current rental market trends is the first step. Success requires adapting your pricing strategy, maintaining realistic timelines, and working with professionals who understand these market dynamics.

Doorstead can help you get your property leased without the stress. We offer customized rental estimates, in-person showings, professional photography, comprehensive background screening, and more. Get your free estimate below!

‍

Sources: Market data from Zillow, Rent.com, Apartment List, and Doorstead internal analysis

‍